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New research reveals strong latent demand for electrified powertrains
New research from Electrify Research shows UK homeowners want to rapidly move away from petrol and diesel vehicles, with two-thirds of current petrol/diesel owners planning to switch to an electrified powertrain for their next car. The findings, based on a survey of 9,000 UK homeowners, point to a dramatic transformation in the car market over the next three years.
Powertrain switching intention (latent demand): UK homeowners, next 3 years
Alluvial chart showing homeowner car switching intention. From Electrify Research - Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study (HETS) 2023–’25. Based on nine waves of research (Aug ‘23–Aug ’25) each with 1,000 UK homeowners per wave (total 9,000). Base – homeowners who currently own a car and are considering switching (or staying with their current car) in the next 3 years. For each powertrain considered, we multiply the consideration percentage by the share who rate themselves as either “very likely” or “likely” to go ahead and switch. Those who say they won’t be changing cars are assumed to stay with the same powertrain, acting as a brake on shifting flows. Homeowners can express purchase likelihood for multiple powertrains, so the stated intentions reflect overlapping consideration sets rather than mutually exclusive choices. The flows shown represent the relative strength of demand across powertrain types.
Latent demand - what it measures and what it doesn’t
This analysis measures latent demand – the underlying interest and purchase likelihood that homeowners express across different powertrain options. Because respondents can express interest in multiple powertrains (e.g., both a BEV and a PHEV), percentages reflect overlapping consideration sets and may add up to more than 100%.
Crucially, latent demand captures relative strength of market momentum, showing where homeowner interest is concentrating. It does not predict exact future sales, but it does reveal clear directional shifts in consumer preference that point toward rapid electrification.
(Note: Actual ownership changes will also depend on supply-side factors such as car purchase costs, vehicle availability and charging infrastructure over the next three years.)
Which powertrains are the winners and which are the losers?
If realised, these demand-side intentions could radically re-shape the UK homeowner car fleet within three years. The research points to:
- Petrol/diesel vehicles falling from 87% of the fleet to around 50%
- Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) more than double from 9% to 21%
- Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) quadruple from a low base of 3% to 12%
- Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) nearly triple from 6% to 16%
These shifts in fleet composition are driven by the individual switching intentions outlined below.
How purchase intention splits out
Homeowners show clear pathways as they move up the “electrification ladder.” Many want a more electrified powertrain but very few want to go the other way. Please note - figures reflect overlapping consideration rather than exclusive choices, and therefore may exceed 100%:
- Petrol/diesel owners are dividing their next purchase between HEVs (15 percentage points), BEVs (10 points) and PHEVs (9 points) - a 34-point shift away from traditional combustion engines. The remainder plan to stick with their current powertrain (44%) or not change cars within three years (29%).
- HEV owners appear to see their current car as a stepping stone: 29% plan to move to BEVs, 25% to PHEVs, while half (49%) will stay with HEVs. Only 9% are considering returning to petrol/diesel.
- PHEV owners also treat their powertrain as transitional. Nearly half (47%) plan to move to a BEV next, and another 43% expect to stay with a PHEV. Once again, only 9% consider returning to petrol/diesel.
- BEV owners show the strongest loyalty: two-thirds (66%) plan to buy another BEV, with a further 24% keeping their current one. Of the small minority switching away, 20% consider PHEVs, 16% HEVs, and just 10% would return to petrol/diesel.
The network effects
The research also shows that BEV ownership acts as a catalyst for wider home electrification. Once households adopt a BEV, their likelihood of considering heat pumps and solar panels rises sharply. Each EV purchase, therefore, is not just a car sale - it’s a trigger for a broader energy transition at the household level. Please see earlier article on this here.
What this means for industry stakeholders:
- For Energy Suppliers - Home charging demand will surge. With one-third of homeowners expected to own a BEV or PHEV after their next purchase cycle, time-of-use tariffs, smart charging, and vehicle-to-grid technology will shift from niche to mainstream.
- For Policymakers - Consumer momentum is strong and running ahead of infrastructure. Local charging networks and grid reinforcement must accelerate to match homeowner intentions with reality.
- For Auto Manufacturers - BEVs are the end destination, with HEVs and PHEVs serving as waypoints. PHEVs in particular appear to be transitional technologies rather than long-term solutions.
The demand side picture, not the supply side
These findings reflect demand-side intentions, not a full market forecast. Consumers often overestimate how soon they’ll replace their car: in our HETS study, around 75% expect to change within three years, but in practice only about 50% will.
Moreover, stated preferences assume certain conditions - for example, stable vehicle prices and improved charging availability - which may not fully materialise. As such, adoption may not follow the exact pattern shown by the stated-preference model.
About the research
This analysis draws on Electrify Research’s Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study (HETS), based on nine waves of research conducted between August 2023 and August 2025. Each wave surveyed a representative sample of 1,000 UK homeowners (9,000 total), including both those planning to switch and those with no intention to change their car. HETS is available as a dashboard, contact Electrify Research for more information and a demonstration.
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About Electrify Research
Electrify Research’s Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study (HETS) study is the world's largest, most up-to-date insight tracker tool covering homeowner adoption, attitudes and 'path to purchase' across: heat pumps, EVs, solar, batteries, finance and energy providers. Built from 32,000 interviews with homeowners plus an additional 4,000 interviews every quarter in the UK, France, Germany and the US, HETS turns complex consumer behaviour into clear, actionable insights, helping organisations leading the home electrification transition improve their products, pricing, marketing, communications and policy. HETS helps you size the market, measure market trends, target / segment audiences, understand the drivers and barriers to purchase, hit consumers’ ‘hot buttons’, measure network effects, assess impact of new tariffs, profile energy supplier brands’ customers.
Contact:
Ben Marks
Managing Director, Electrify Research
ben.marks@electrifyresearch.co.uk
www.electrifyresearch.co.uk
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