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New research reveals massive demand shift toward electrified powertrains
New research on consumer demand from Electrify Research shows UK homeowners want to rapidly move away from petrol and diesel vehicles, with two-thirds of current petrol/diesel owners planning to switch to an electrified powertrain for their next car. The findings, based on surveys of 9,000 UK homeowners, reveal a likely dramatic transformation in the car market over the next three years.
Powertrain switching intention (latent demand): UK homeowners, next 3 years
Caption: Alluvial chart showing homeowner car switching intention. From Electrify Research - Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study (HETS) 2023-’25. Based on nine waves of research (Aug ‘23 -Aug’25) each with 1000 UK homeowners per wave (in total 9000). Base – homeowners who currently own a car considering switching cars (or sticking) in the next 3 years - by powertrain owned and powertrain intent for next car. For each powertrain considered we multiply consideration percentage by the percentage who rate themselves as either “very likely” or “likely” to go ahead and switch to that powertrain. We assume those who say they won’t be switching cars within 3 years to be staying with the same powertrain (acting as a brake on shifting flows)
The Big Picture
If current intentions were to play out, the UK homeowner car fleet will look radically different in three years:
- Petrol/diesel vehicles will plummet from 87% to around 50%
- Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) will more than double from 9% to 21%
- Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) will quadruple from 3% to 12%
- Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will triple from 6% to 16%
There is an important note explaining the caveats to these swings (see "Important Note", below).
Key Migration Patterns
The research reveals clear pathways as homeowners move up the "electrification ladder":
- Petrol/diesel owners are splitting their next purchase between HEVs (15 percentage points), BEVs (10 points), and PHEVs (9 points).
- HEV owners see hybrids as a stepping stone, with around half planning to move to full battery electric vehicles.
- PHEV owners view plug-in hybrids as transitional technology, with three-quarters looking to switch to BEVs next.
- BEV owners show the strongest loyalty, with 60% planning to buy another BEV and hardly any considering returning to petrol / diesel.
Overall, the traffic is in one direction - that is towards greater electrification. Very few homeowners consider returning to petrol or diesel once they have started the journey away from it.
What This Means
For Energy Suppliers: Home charging demand will surge. With one-third of homeowners expected to own a BEV or PHEV after the next purchase cycle, time-of-use tariffs, smart charging, and vehicle-to-grid technology will shift from niche offerings to mainstream products.
For Policymakers: Consumer momentum is strong and ahead of infrastructure. Local charging networks and grid reinforcement must accelerate to match homeowner intentions with reality.
For Auto Manufacturers: BEVs are the end destination, with HEVs and PHEVs serving as waypoints. PHEVs in particular appear to be transitional technology rather than a long-term solution.
The Network Effect
The research also reveals that BEV ownership triggers broader home electrification. Once households adopt an electric vehicle, their consideration of heat pumps and solar panels rises sharply. Each EV purchase is not just a car sale, but a catalyst for whole-home energy transition. See more on network effects measured by HETS here.
About the research
This analysis is drawn from Electrify Research's Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study (HETS), based on nine waves of research conducted between August 2023 and August 2025. Each wave surveyed a representative sample 1,000 UK homeowners (9,000 total). The subsample for this study looked at is homeowners who currently owned a car. We included both those who were thinking about making a switch and those who had no intention of changing their car.
Important note:
This research captures demand-side intentions, it is not a fleet forecast. Two key factors affect the likely accuracy of this the account from HETS. 1) We know that consumers are likely overestimate how soon they'll switch cars (in HETS around 75% say within three years, but in reality it will be closer to 50%) It is hard to adjust for this so we take respondents at their word and assume those who say they'll switch, indeed will. Second, respondents will state their preferences based on their baked in assumptions, in particular around the cost of car and charging infrastructure. If infrastructure development falls short, or prices are higher than expectations, adoption will be slower; if it accelerates, adoption could be faster. The point isn't the exact powertrain in three years time. The point is that consumers get that cars are going electric and they want on board.
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About Electrify Research
Electrify Research’s Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study (HETS) is the world's largest, most up-to-date insight tracker tool covering homeowner adoption, attitudes and 'path to purchase' across: heat pumps, EVs, solar, batteries, finance and energy providers. Built from 32,000 interviews with homeowners plus an additional 4,000 interviews every quarter in the UK, France, Germany and the US, HETS turns complex consumer behaviour into clear, actionable insights, helping organisations leading the home electrification transition improve their products, pricing, marketing, communications and policy. HETS helps you: size the market, measure market trends, target / segment audiences, understand the drivers and barriers to purchase, hit consumers’ ‘hot buttons’, measure network effects, assess impact of new tariffs, profile energy supplier brands’ customers.
Contact:
Ben Marks
Managing Director, Electrify Research
ben.marks@electrifyresearch.co.uk
www.electrifyresearch.co.uk
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