Welcome to the latest in our Research Snippet series where I discuss low carbon technology from the consumer's point of view in terms of adoption and "path to purchase" based on our Home Electrification Tracker Study (HETS).
The market for heat pumps is not a single, easily identifiable group - it's a series of micro-markets. As an example, homeowners in off-gas-grid homes considering a new heating system in the next three years are four times more open to a heat pump compared with those on mains gas with boilers. Our consumer tracker study, HETS, quantifies the potential for (and size of) each of these micro-markets and shows what messaging is most likely to move them to purchase. It's our contention that the heat pump market needs careful, highly segmented marketing. And that's important for another reason. Heat pumps are still part of an (often toxic) discourse. They're used by culture warriors as an emblem of supposed virtue signalling and unaffordable solutions offered by net zero "lobby". It's not true, but that's how some choose to treat them. So marketing them to precise, high potential sub-groups is vital. Done badly, heat pump marketing doesn't just waste your precious budgets. It feeds a backlash and entrenches the idea that heat pumps are beyond the reach of normal people 'like me'.
The truth is, heat pumps are a vital element of net zero. Home heat accounts for about a fifth of UK carbon emissions, largely thanks to our gas boilers. Heat pumps are three or four times more efficient and, as the grid decarbonises, they offer the prospect of homes heated by zero-carbon electricity. The commercial question is not simply whether they are a good technology (they are) or whether there is a market for them (there is). It's: where demand is already forming, how strong is it, how big is each micro-market and how should we trim our messaging to reflect the needs and motivations of each group? HETS allows subscribers to answer all these questions instantly.
Latent heat pump demand is around 4x higher in off-gas-grid homes - HETS 2026
For example, among homeowners considering a new heating system within the next three years, those off the gas grid are four times more likely to get a heat pump than those using mains gas boilers. Among those off-grid, two fifths say they are considering a heat pump, compared with 27% of mains gas boiler households. But the gap becomes much wider when we look beyond broad consideration and ask who is most likely to act. Among heat pump considerers, 40% of those off-grid say they are "extremely likely" to get one, while among mains gas boiler households, the equivalent figure is 14%. Combining these two measures gives an estimate of high-conviction latent demand, which is around 16% among off-grid households, compared with around 4% among mains gas boiler households. Although a fraction of the size of the gas boiler market, the off-gas-grid market should be a vastly higher priority to OEMs and installers. There are multiple other micro-markets like this.
It might be obvious that off-gas-grid households would be keener: they have fewer choices, their fuel is very expensive, and they are more likely to live in low-density housing where space is at less of a premium. But what HETS adds is quantification. It can show exactly how much more receptive this audience and how big it is. And it goes further still. HETS includes over half a million homeowner comments on how and why people want, reject or hesitate over low-carbon technology, and what would make them more likely to adopt it. These are open-text responses, coded and classified using AI, which means HETS can track trends while still retaining a more honest, top-of-mind understanding of what homeowners are actually saying. That means HETS can help marketers understand not just who the warmest audience is, for heat pumps, but what to say to them, how their understanding of the technology is changing, and which barriers or messages matter most. For example, the sharpest difference between the off- and on-gas grid groups isn't running cost or efficiency - it's looks. Off-grid homeowners are about a third as likely as mains gas households to raise "appearance" as a drawback; the "ugly," "bulky," "eyesore" objections barely register with them. So a pitch to this audience that spends its time and energy reassuring people about how a heat pump looks would be solving a problem they mostly don't have. That is the kind of distinction HETS pins down.
The heat pump opportunity will be won by finding the households where conviction is already forming, understanding why, and acting on that knowledge. For heat pumps, the opportunities are very particular which means the sector needs to start targeting conviction, understanding potential and be sharper and more differentiated on its messaging. HETS can help in all these endeavours.
Would you like to discuss HETS or see it in action? Contact me via this website to book a meeting.
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