Two thirds of homeowners with petrol cars plan to go electric within 3 years

HETS data from 8,000 UK homeowners shows a powerful shift up the “electrification ladder” over the next three years, with two in three planning to switch to an electrified powertrain within 3 years . The flows we measure are not a market share forecast; that would need to account for the supply side (e.g. local charging infrastructure). But they do show where demand is at, and it shows that latent demand for electrified cars is huge. The naysayers are wrong: petrol cars are likely to go into very steep decline.

Powertrain switching intention (latent demand): UK homeowners, next 3 years

Alluvial chart showing homeowner car switching intention. From Electrify Research - Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study (HETS) 2023-’25. Based on eight waves of research (Aug 2023 -May’25) each with 1000 UK homeowners (in total 8000). Base – homeowners who currently own a car considering switching cars (or sticking) in the next 3 years by powertrain. And for each powertrain considered we multiply consideration percentage by the percentage who rate themselves as either “very likely” or “likely” to go ahead and switch to that powertrain. 

Key shifts in the next three years

We ask car-owning homeowners what they currently drive, whether they’re considering changing their car in the next three years, what types of car they’d consider at that time then we push them on intention by asking them how likely it is that they will go ahead and purchase the car type they say they’d consider. The results show:

• Petrol/diesel demand collapses: from 87% of homeowner cars today to ~33% if intentions play out.
• BEVs triple: from 6% today to ~19%
• PHEVs quadruple: from 3% to ~15%
• Hybrids (HEVs) almost triple: from 9% to ~24%.
• 9% won’t switch, acting as a brake.

Put differently: two in three homeowners currently in petrol/diesel plan to move to an electrified powertrain next cycle.

Flows

• Petrol/diesel owners mostly move to HEV (21 points) or BEV (13), with smaller flows to PHEV (12).
• HEV owners lean forward: ~60% switch up, mostly into BEVs.
• PHEV is a stepping-stone: ~65% are looking to switch on, three-quarters of them into BEVs. Unlike BEVs, PHEVs are not a final destination, most who have one quickly start thinking about removing petrol from their lives, altogether.
• BEV is the stickiest powertrain. It’s not the 90% retention that is sometimes quoted, but around 60% of BEV owners intend to repurchase a BEV next time. This is – by far – the highest repurchase intention for any car type. Of the BEV owners who do want to switch away, only a tiny number consider going back to exclusively petrol.

Implications for energy suppliers, policy and OEMs

Energy suppliers: Home charge point demand and EV tariffs will surge. With one-third of homeowners owning a BEV or PHEV after the next cycle, time-of-use tariffs, smart charging and vehicle-to-grid will move from niche to mainstream.

Policymakers / influencers: Momentum is strong. Most households are already pushing toward electrification. Investment in local charging and residential grid reinforcement is urgent to ensure intent turns into adoption.

OEMs: BEVs are the destination, but hybrids and PHEVs are credible waypoints. PHEVs in particular look transitory.

The bigger picture

BEV ownership unlocks network effects: consideration of heat pumps rises from 38% to 53% (+40%), consideration of solar rises from 39% to 52% (+33%). Each EV is not just a car sale, but the trigger for a whole-home energy transition[i].

Getting more detail

All this data came from our Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study (HETS). This research note just scratches the surface on this issue. You may, for example, want to see a clear description (audience profile) for each car type. You may want to change the analysis only looking at those with a strong stated intention to purchase each type of car (only those saying they are “very likely” to make the purchase rather than the “likely” and “very likely” figure we look at (clue, it bolsters the likely extent of switching to BEVs in particular). You may want to break this analysis by current car age. Or look for trends over time (this analysis telescopes 2 years of polling into a single analysis).

Whatever your angle, HETS can provide the consumer data, just ask to see the dashboard (contact details below).

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Electrify Research

Electrify Research’s Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study (HETS) study is the world's largest, most up-to-date insight tracker tool covering homeowner adoption, attitudes and 'path to purchase' across: heat pumps, EVs, solar, batteries, finance and energy providers. Built from 32,000 interviews with homeowners plus an additional 4,000 interviews every quarter in the UK, France, Germany and the US, HETS turns complex consumer behaviour into clear, actionable insights, helping organisations leading the home electrification transition improve their products, pricing, marketing, communications and policy. HETS helps you: size the market, measure market trends, target / segment audiences, understand the drivers and barriers to purchase, hit consumers’ ‘hot buttons’, measure network effects, assess impact of new tariffs, profile energy supplier brands’ customers.

Contact

Ben Marks Managing Director, Electrify Research ben.marks@electrifyresearch.co.uk www.electrifyresearch.co.uk

Methodology and notes

Data source: Electrify Research’s Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study (HETS), based on eight survey waves (Aug 2023–May 2025) with 1,000 UK homeowners each wave (9,000 in total).

Base: Homeowners who currently own a car and are considering a change (or not) in the next three years.

Latent demand measure: For each powertrain considered, we multiply consideration by the proportion saying they are “likely” or “very likely” to buy that type. This makes the measure more predictive than consideration alone.

Not switching: 9% of homeowners state no change; this group is included in the flows to act as a brake.

Interpretation: Results show latent demand, not forecasts of 2028 market share. Supply-side constraints (e.g. charging infrastructure, vehicle availability, policy shifts) could mean actual outcomes differ.

Granularity: While this note uses the combined “likely + very likely” measure, the “very likely” group is often a better predictor of final market outcomes. On this stricter view, BEVs take a larger share and PHEVs appear even more transitory.