We're often told that EV demand is stalling. The chart below from HETS tracks a deliberately demanding measure: UK homeowners who expect to buy a car within the next three years, are considering a BEV as their next car, and say they are extremely likely to go ahead and get one.
So, this chart is looking at a REALLY firm measure of homeowner demand for BEVs. It's trended up - by about two points since early 2025 on our three-wave average from roughly 10% to 12% which implies 20% growth in firm demand. Three years ago 23% of those expecting to get a car were thinking about getting a BEV. It's now 28%. And of these considerers, 47% now see themselves as "extremely likely" to go ahead and get one (up from 44% when we started asking this follow-on question in November 2024). Actual sales will be much higher - these will include company cars (where BEV fuel efficiency really comes into its own) plus there's all the considerers who only rate themselves as "likely" to get a BEV or are on the fence about it - many of whom will go on to get one. But we are focused on the most convinced here and for this group the numbers are up by about 20% in 3 years.
If you look at the raw wave line (the grey line, with more volatility) you can see fuel prices impacting demand. There's a spike after the June 2025 Iran strikes and the EV grant announcement, then there's another this spring when the Hormuz closure put 20p on a litre of petrol in a month. The first one faded once prices settled (an unsurprising reversion to the mean) which pulls the moving average down. Note the Jan-Mar 2026 fieldwork largely pre-dated the US strikes on Iran, so the spring wave is the first with the fuel shock in it. Whether this spike fades too is the question to be determined in the next wave of HETS.
All this data comes from HETS (Homeowner Electrification Tracker Study). We've been talking to homeowners every quarter for the past 3 years, asking about the path to purchase (or rejection) for low carbon technology. So far we've spoken to 48,000 homeowners. Find out more on our homepage
Leave a Comment